Gigantic Nile dam prompts clash between Egypt and Ethiopia

Environmental scientists representing Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan are at the heart of an increasingly bitter dispute over Africa鈥檚 largest hydroelectric dam, which Ethiopia is building on the Nile.

At play are questions about scarce resources, responding to climate change 鈥?and the intractable nature of disputes over water.

The countries鈥?researchers met this week in Sudan鈥檚 capital, Khartoum, ahead of a conference of water ministers on 4鈥? October. The dam鈥檚 overall environmental impacts, especially on water supplies in Egypt, were top of the agenda. The ministers鈥?meeting ended without resolution and Egypt is now calling for the United States to become involved. Earlier government talks in Cairo also ended without agreement, on 16 September.

Egypt is concerned that Ethiopia is moving too fast to complete the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and that its timetable will create water and food scarcity, and put millions of Egypt鈥檚 farmers out of work. Ninety per cent of Egypt鈥檚 fresh water comes from the Nile, which runs south to north from Ethiopia鈥檚 highlands, the main source of the tributary called the Blue Nile (see 鈥楢 river runs through it鈥?.

Ethiopia counters that the project, which is 60% complete, is essential for its electricity needs and a matter of national sovereignty 鈥?not something Egypt can interfere with. According to the World Bank, 66% of Ethiopia鈥檚 population is without electricity, the third highest proportion in the world. At its peak, the dam is expected to produce 6.45 gigawatts of electricity.

Ethiopia鈥檚 government also says that its plan will enable countries to its north cope more effectively with the effects of climate change. At present, unpredictable dry and wet weather in the Nile Basin 鈥?caused in part by climate change 鈥?is contributing to intermittent floods and water shortages. Ethiopia鈥檚 plan will even out Nile water flow, making such events less likely, says Seleshi Bekele, Ethiopia鈥?i>s minister of water, irrigation and energy.

The three countries involved have established an independent expert panel, the National Independent Scientific Research Group, to help find a way forward.

Starting schedule

When the dam will start operating depends on how quickly its main reservoir can be filled from Nile water and this is at the heart of the dispute. The reservoir provides the store of water, which is used to drive turbines that generate electricity. Ethiopia wants the reservoir to be filled over 5 years, with 35 billion cubic metres of water being released to downstream countries each year while the dam is being filled. Egypt says that its water supplies will be reduced during this period. It is calling for the reservoir to be filled more slowly, over 7 years, and wants more water to be released 鈥?40 billion cubic metres per year.

Egypt and Ethiopia do not have a formal water-sharing agreement. Under the 1959 Nile Waters Agreement between Egypt and Sudan, Egypt takes 55.5 billion cubic metres of water from the Nile each year, and Sudan takes 18.5 billion. The agreement was reached shortly before Egypt began constructing its own megadam, the Aswan High Dam.

Ethiopia, however, was not part of this agreement and therefore does not recognize it. Ethiopian foreign-ministry spokesperson Nebiyat Getachew said at a press conference on 20 September that any proposal that did not respect 鈥淓thiopia鈥檚 sovereignty and its right to use the Nile dam鈥?wouldn鈥檛 be accepted.

鈥淓thiopia expects discussions and progress on our talks without the imposition of any one of the countries,鈥?Bekele told Nature. 鈥淭he issues are solvable technically and we can place the right framework on long-term operation, based on science and best practices.鈥?/p>

Water-resources researcher Kevin Wheeler of the Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford, UK, says that in a year with average rainfall, Egypt should experience little or no additional water scarcity if the reservoir is filled over 5鈥? years, with at least 35 billion cubic metres of water released downstream.

But Egypt is right to be concerned about extra water scarcity in dry years and those with low rainfall, adds Wheeler, who co-wrote a 2016 paper1 on approaches to filling the dam.

Harry Verhoeven, a Nile Basin researcher based in Qatar, says that ultimately there is little Egypt can do, and policymakers in Cairo will have to adjust to having less Nile water during the dam鈥檚 filling period. 鈥淩educed water flows over several years mean tough choices, not only of who gets the water but what crops you grow and whether domestic food supply or export markets are prioritized,鈥?he says.

Verhoeven says that Egypt could take the dispute to the International Court of Justice in The Hague, the Netherlands, but that would require both sides to agree to such arbitration. Even if they did agree, he predicts, the court would be unlikely to find in Egypt"s favour. 鈥淓thiopia has a right to develop the water resources in its territory,鈥?he says.

Egypt鈥檚 ministry of water and irrigation did not respond to Nature鈥檚 repeated requests for comment. But in a statement issued earlier this month, the ministry said that it considered 鈥渋t important for the Ethiopian side to engage in serious technical negotiations鈥? and find an agreement that would be in 鈥渢he common interests of the three countries鈥?

Although neither side has been willing to budge so far, the countries are likely to find a compromise, says Ismail Serageldin, a former vice-president of the World Bank who predicted in 1995 that twenty-first-century wars would be fought over water. 鈥淓thiopia wants as short a period as possible, Egypt wants as long a period as possible, they will negotiate and meet somewhere in the middle 鈥?I think it鈥檚 good that people are talking.鈥?/p>

鈥淭here鈥檚 still time for wars,鈥?adds Serageldin, who later became a science adviser to Egypt鈥檚 prime minister. 鈥淏ut who knows, we may turn out to be wise; wiser than I thought possible at the time that I said that.鈥?/p>

Nature 574, 159-160 (2019)